Game 7 Road Victories
After the Pittsburgh Penguins defeated the Detroit Red Wings in Game 7 over the weekend AT Detroit, the common stat every news article threw out there was that this was the first time since 1979 that a road team won a Game 7 in a championship series in major professional sports. I’m a bit of a stats geek, and sometimes stats are thrown around because they sound “sexy” even when they have little to stand behind. This one sounded a little fishy, so I did some inspection.
Here are a few things I look for when determining if a stat is suspect. Let’s start with USA Today’s exact quote of the stat: “The Penguins are the first road team in any sport to win a championship in Game 7 since the Pittsburgh Pirates won the World Series against the Baltimore Orioles in 1979…” 1
- Look for hyperbole, such as “any sport” in the above quote – actually, the only major American sports that play best-of-seven series are baseball, basketball, and hockey, so we’re only talking about THREE sports.
- Be wary of non-recurring stats- “since 1979″ may be 30 years, but no Game 7s were even PLAYED in the three sports since 2006. Isn’t it more impressive when a team like the Lakers finish off a series in just five games by winning the last two on the road?
- No underlying numbers – when numbers aren’t given, usually the feat isn’t as impressive as the stat sounds. For example, Barry Bonds NEVER got a hit off of Roger Clemens in his entire career. The reality? Bonds only had 8 plate appearances against Clemens and was walked 5 times (3 times intentionally) and was hit by a pitch once. So, yes, he was 0 for 2 lifetime against Clemens, but got on base 6 out of 8 times to the plate.
Everything pointed to this Game 7 stat being a fraud. I thought I would find out that only four or five Game 7s were even played in the past 30 years. Nope. I was wrong. Since 1979, 18 times (6 hockey, 4 basketball, 8 baseball) a Game 7 was played for the championship, and 18 times the home team won. Wow! 18 times is more than just a coincidence so, despite my initial hesitation, I give mad props to Pittsburgh AND their impressive stat!
(image above taken from http://www.upi.com/enl-win/7a1fdb60ecf60574f2683b88b25cb530/)
Read on:
USAToday.com – Penguins ride Talbot to 2-1 Game 7 win over Red Wings
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